Authors: EMMANUEL ECHE PhD, Prof. Emmanuel C. Ani, Anyanwu Evangeline Emmanuel
- SSAR Journal of Economic and Business Management (SSARJEBM), ISSN: 3107-4146 (Online).
- PP. 215-227
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24050042
ABSTRACT: The study examines Population growth, Agricultural productivity and Economic growth in Southern Taraba State, Nigeria. The study made use of time series data from 1988 to 2025 on real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and proxy for economic growth, and other explanatory variable include population growth and agricultural output as a proxy for agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Descriptive statistics- the mean, skewness, kurtosis and jaque-Bera tests were used to examine and test the statistical properties of the model. The unit root analysis conducted on the series using Augmented Dickey-fuller (ADF) test indicate that all the variables were integrated at first difference. It thereby paved way for the analysis of the series under Vector autoregressive framework. The Johansen cointegration test revealed a long-run relationship between population growth, agricultural productivity and economic growth in Southern Taraba State, Nigeria. The estimated long-run equation indicates that population had a positive and significant impact on economic growth. The empirical findings reveal a long-run co-integrating relationship between population expansion, agrarian output and local economic growth. In the short run, rapid population growth exerts a negative effect on per capita the paper concludes with actionable policy recommendations focusing on land tenure security, agricultural value-chain modernization, rural infrastructure development, and peace-building frameworks essential for sustainable economic growth in the Middle Belt of Nigeria.
KEYWORDS: Population Growth, Agricultural Productivity, Economic Growth, Southern Taraba State, Boserup Hypothesis, Malthusian theory. Unit root, Impulse response, ADF.
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